Budget Deficit

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The buzzword on everyone’s lips is Hurricane Irene, especially if you live on the East Coast of the United States. Lots of news, alerts and warnings are being issued on the hurricane and its movements across the eastern seaboard. As individuals and families we have to brace ourselves and take whatever precautions practically possible to face the onslaught of Hurricane Irene. But for counties and municipalities, the total cost in wreckage could pose insurmountable financial problems.

Many counties and municipalities across the US are heading towards bankruptcy because of the prolonged economic crisis. First there was the subprime mortgage crisis and now there’s the trillion-dollar budget deficit crisis, not to mention the economic woes of our European trading partners. All these spell potential financial ruin for many countries, let alone smaller regions like counties or municipalities. Despite market predictions and bond-selling strategies to raise funds, many counties and municipalities are not adequately prepared for large-scale natural disasters like Hurricane Irene.

At best, the municipalities are able to deal with the minor meteorological blips like the occasional heavy snow storm or forest fire, but generally, America’s municipalities are currently living on razor thin surpluses, if any. All it takes is one strike from a very capricious and hardly predictable mother nature to tilt the balance between financial status quo and financial bankruptcy.

For example, look at New York City situation. Not too long ago, a snowstorm last year severely drained a major portion of the city’s “reserve” budget. Now barely 9 months later, comes Hurricane Irene. It is rather obvious with New York City preparing itself to face such a potentially catastrophic disaster, it has scant financial resources to offset the damage that is coming with the city already straining to sustain present budget obligations.

This doesn’t mean that the entire eastern United States will go bankrupt, but it merely points to the fact that all counties and municipalities should take whatever financial precautions necessary to deal with natural disasters that can cost millions of dollars. For however important pension, bond and voter obligations may seem to be in the immediate present, local governments must realize their duty is not only to appease bondholders and pensioners. They are to govern their entire jurisdiction with financial prudence.

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    Standard and Poor’s may seem to think so.  After all, the reputed rating agency downgraded the US government’s credit rating from AAA to AA+, an act that drew plenty of protests from politicians.  Recently, the New York Times reported that the Justice Department has been investigating the business practices of Standard and Poor’s, a process that has been going on since 2008 when the rating agency highlighted the sorry state of the country’s mortgage securities that resulted in the sub-prime mortgage crisis that year.  Apparently, the investigation has intensified in the last few weeks and its focus has also changed.
    However, it is surprising that our politicians are dissatisfied with S&P’s evaluation of the credit rating of the country when the amount of public debt is plain for all to see.  The US government owes $14.5 trillion and long-term entitlement liabilities of over $100 trillion but taxes collected amount to only $2.2 trillion per year, which goes to pay salaries of all government servants, maintenance of all public assets and funding government projects.  How do we even begin to pay off any part of that mountainous debt?
    It does not seem like the US government has any sincere desire to pay off any of the public debt.  Neither the Democrats nor GOP has put forth any credible game plan to seriously tackle the problem.  So far, all the budgets that have been proposed have only served to add not lessen the public debt.  With each budget deficit, the zeros keep being added to the debt figure.
    The amount of debt has become so much that we would not be able to bring it down even if there was political will to do so.  Right now, there is no such will in Washington.  Our Congressmen should not investigate whether S&P’s did the right thing in downgrading the US government’s credit rating, they should investigate whether the downgrading was sufficient to reflect the true nature of the nation’s ability to repay its debt.  In light of the above, perhaps the downgrading should have been more than just AAA to AA+.
    Given the grave condition of our public debt, most of the US government’s bonds and promissory notes should be rated junk.  Don’t be surprised if the amount of returns you get when you redeem your government bonds is much lower in value compared to the amount of capital you invested.
    In view of this, the only investigation that should be carried out is on our politicians on how and why they allowed America’s financial condition to deteriorate to what it is today.

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      Will our nation ever go bankrupt?  Consider the report from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).  The CBO reports that the national debt is already the highest in history except for World War II, reaching roughly 70% of GDP this year.  If things do not change, CBO projects the national debt held by the public will climb to 100% of GDP by 2021, equal to our entire economy.  By 2023, it will break the World War II historical record of 109% of GDP.   It will then continue to skyrocket to 190% of GDP by 2035, which is higher than the level suffered by Greece when it collapsed into national bankruptcy.
      Bankruptcy for a country happens when the federal government can no longer borrow enough in the credit markets to finance its budget deficit.  Already this year, 43 cents of every dollar the federal government spends is borrowed.   95% of all the tax money collected goes to Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and the income security programs (mostly welfare).  After that, there is nothing left to pay even the interest on the national debt, which is equal to 10% of federal revenues.  All other federal government expenses, including all of national defense, law enforcement, transportation, agriculture etc comes from borrowed money.
      With the federal deficit already at $1.6 trillion, America faces a potentially crippling bankruptcy threat just from another recession in the short term.  How high will the deficit then soar, as revenues decline again and spending skyrockets?
      By 2013, the top tax rates will be raised under current law, with the ObamaCare tax increases going into effect, and the expiration of the Bush tax cuts.  Obama has refused to renew tax cuts for singles making over $200,000 and couples making over $250,000 beyond next year.
      The ObamaCare tax increases will mean the top two income tax rates would rise by nearly 20%, the capital gains tax would rise by nearly 60%, the tax on corporate dividends would nearly triple, the death tax would rise from the grave with a 55% top rate, and the Medicare payroll tax rate would increase by 62% on the nation’s small businesses, job creators, and investors.
      This is on top of the current corporate tax rate of nearly 40% nationwide on average, counting state corporate tax rates.  Even Communist China has a 25% corporate tax rate, with the average in the socialist European Union below even that.  Yet, the President continually proposes more tax increases on American companies.

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        All the states in the US are considered sovereign territories which makes it unconstitutional for them to be under federal bankruptcy supervision.  But in times like these where many states are facing huge budget deficits, would filing for bankruptcy be the answer?  Newt Gingrich thinks so and he is about to propose a new bankruptcy bill to Congress next month.
        As sovereigns, all states are expected to balance their budgets at the end of every financial year, with the exception of Vermont.  To improve their cash flow, most states issue state bonds.  The bond industry is a burgeoning $2.8 trillion business each year.  Among the biggest bond issuers are New York, California and Illinois.
        However all the states including the most cash-strapped ones like New York, California and Illinois reject the idea of a bankruptcy bill.  California’s state treasurer Bill Lockyer outrightly rejected the idea.  He said bankruptcy would destroy the state’s ability to overcome the recession and make the infrastructure investments that would create jobs for Californians.  He also said that California is taking steps like reducing benefits and increasing workers’ contributions in order to close the budget deficit.
        Lockyer draws a distinction between California’s short-term budget deficit and its long-term funding obligations.  Both are presently being addressed without having to resort to bankruptcy.
        Texas Governor Rick Perry stressed the need for states to be responsible over their own finances without having to receive bailout funds from the federal government.  According to him, bankruptcy should not be a means to escape financial prudence and good management.
        Thomas DiNapoli, New York’s state controller said that filing for bankruptcy and defaulting on bond payments would have a detrimental effect on the state’s credit rating and severely destabilize investor confidence.  Bankruptcy is seen as merely an easy cop out.  As such he is against the option for states to file for bankruptcy, preferring to address the financial shortfall with steps that align recurring spending and revenue.
        Illinois Governor Pat Quinn’s director of communications for the Governor’s Office of Management and Budget, Kelly Kraft was even more blunt, avoiding any comments by saying, “We do not comment on hypotheticals. States cannot declare bankruptcy.”

        Even though states do not want to file for bankruptcy, you may want to consider doing so to get a fresh start financially.  If you or your business wish to file for bankruptcy, call us at (813) 200-4133 for a free consultation.

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        In May 2008, the city of Vallejo (population 120,000) filed for Chapter 9 bankruptcy after failing in negotiations with unions over salary cuts coupled with much lower tax revenue due to the recession.  Chapter 9 allows municipalities to reorganize their debt rather than liquidate their assets.  Vallejo is the largest city in California and the second-largest local government after Orange County to file for bankruptcy.
        Since 2008, the city has spent $9.5 million in legal fees with little to show for it.  On November 30, the city council approved a five year budget that allows Vallejo to pay for $195 million in unfunded pension obligations.  The budget also outlines plans to delay payments to bondholders, cut down employee benefits, allocates $5 million for unsecured creditors and creates a rainy-day fund.  The city must also submit a bankruptcy-exit plan that includes the budget to a Sacramento court by January 18, 2011.
        One thing that comes up clearly from the Vallejo experience is that it is better to find a negotiated settlement out of court.  One city that successfully found an out-of-court settlement is Tracy, a city of about 82,000 residents, 60 miles east of San Francisco.  The city was faced with a budget deficit of $7.5 million when it negotiated for its police union to cancel remaining raises and boost the retirement age from 50 to 55 for new hires even though its contract was not up for renewal.
        But the ability of US cities to file for bankruptcy depends on whether the state has statutes authorizing the filing of bankruptcy under Chapter 9 of the bankruptcy code.  25 states in the US do not have such statutes.  This year, 5 municipalities sought bankruptcy protection, a drop from 10 last year.  Since 1937, 619 local government bodies have filed for bankruptcy, mostly among small sewer or utility districts.  In contrast, over 11,000 companies filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in 2009 alone.
        When Harrisburg, the capital of Pennsylvania was contemplating filing for Chapter 9 bankruptcy due to its inability to pay $282 million on bonds it guaranteed for a trash incinerator, Governor Ed Rendell advanced a $3.3 million to the city for a general-obligation debt payment last September 13.
        The state of Pennsylvania is contemplating whether to grant Harrisburg’s application to the state distressed municipality program.  Under this program, the state will help with a recovery plan that finds ways to raise revenue and streamline operations.


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